Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
